by Walter Oelwein
Everyone wants their team to be perfect, and everyone wants their team to win all their games. But this is unrealistic (unless you’re a Patriots fan). A team is measured by the number of wins and championships, but fans often have a more realistic assessment of their team, and get frustrated by their performance relative to their assessment of how good the team is.
If you’re a fan of a bad team, but they win more games than they deserve, you can be generally pleased with the team. If you’re a fan of a good them, and that teams loses more games than their overall effort and ability merit, this can be, strangely, more frustrating, than being a fan of a bad team that ekes out more wins than they deserve. Then, if that “good team” doesn’t make the playoffs due to this underperformance, then this is extremely frustrating. The San Diego Chargers are that team this year. And we have the stats to prove it.
At Trench Fantasy, we look at what teams are doing in the trenches. Teams that fight hard in the trenches get Trench Fantasy points. These are teams that get the tough yards, make the big stuffs, and dominate the line, whether it’s on Offense, Defense or Special Teams. The more you win in the trenches, the more Trench Points you get. The more you get pushed around, dominated, stuffed, and see yourself chasing the other team down the field, the fewer trench points you get. You may even get negative Trench Fantasy points when you get your butt kicked. Our Trench Fantasy scoring system can be found here. Fans have an intuitive knowledge on how their good their team is not only based on their QBs, RBs, and WRs, but on the ability of the O-Lines, D-Lines, D-Secs and even Special Teams to get the job done in the trenches.
Based on the Trench Fantasy points measurement, it creates statistically rational view of what is going on in the trenches, and as a result, reveals who are the “good teams” and who are the “bad teams” in the trenches. For example, the Jets, Steelers and Packers are good teams in the trenches. You expect them to win because they are tough in the trenches – whether or not they have good QBs, RBs, or WRs. “Bad teams” in the trenches are Buffalo, Denver, Carolina, and Arizona. They get their butts kicked in the trenches every week.
Fans intuitively know the strengths and shortcomings of their teams, and see games through this lens. When a team that is strong in the trenches loses, this is a surprise – and very frustrating. When a team that is weak in the trenches wins, this is a pleasant surprise.
Which brings us to the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers were the dominant team in the trenches this year. On defense, they ranked 2nd (behind only the Jets) and on offense they ranked 7th (just behind the Colts). No other team had this combination of excellence on both offense and defense, and are ranked #1 overall in the Trench Fantasy Power Rankings – as they have earned the most Trench Fantasy points over the course of the 2010 season. Their toughest competition? The Jets at #2 and the Steelers at #3. The Jets are great on defense (ranked #1), but suspect on offense (ranked 17th). The same goes for Pittsburgh (#3 on defense, but 15th on offense). The closest team to have a high powered offense and defense in the trenches is the Packers (11th on offense and 4th on defense).
So fans of the Chargers knew that, going into any game, “the Bolts” are going to have an advantage against the competition. On top of that – the Chargers perform consistently and amazingly in the trenches. They rarely have a bad game in the trenches – always putting the team in position to win. Yet they still lost 7 games and missed the playoffs. Now that is frustrating!
Here’s how frustrating it is for Charger fans. When winning, the Chargers totally blow out the opposition. They scored, on average 241 Trench Fantasy points when winning. The average number of Trench Fantasy points scored – when winning – is 179. So they totally dominated their competition when winning. This is what gives Chargers fans the confidence that they have a “good team.” They can and do blow out their competition!
Now, when losing, the Chargers also fared well in the trenches. They scored an average of 114 Trench Fantasy points – when losing. The league average is 78 points. So they played better in the trenches when losing than most other teams. This is highly frustrating. Your team “plays well,” yet they still lose! Then they do this enough times to not make the playoffs? That is really frustrating.
In looking at the Chargers’ season, there were five games in which their trench play put them in the position to win, but they still lost. That is, in only two games were they really beat in the trenches. Let’s look at these games in which they found a way to lose:
The Chargers dominated in the trenches against the New England Patriots in week 7. They scored 224 Trench Points compared to 72 Trench Points by the Patriots. They should have, by all means, won the game, but found a way to lose in OT. Read the links to the recaps to see why they lost, but be warned if you are a Charger fan, it’s depressing. But let’s continue. Week 1 against KC – The Chargers won in the trenches with 168 Trench Fantasy points to 90 Trench Fantasy points for Kansas City (remember that the average Trench Fantasy points scored when winning is 179), yet they still lost the season opener 21-14. Or how about week 3 against the Seahawks. They barely lost the trench battle, 139-169. They would have won in the trenches if they had not given up huge returns on special teams. In that game, on offense and defense the Chargers battled tough, but it added up to another loss. Then there was the week 6 loss to the St. Louis Rams. Again they played tough in the trenches – earning 98 Trench Fantasy points (20 points above the league average when losing) compared to the Rams’ 128 Trench Fantasy points (51 points below the league average when winning). The Chargers also played tough against the Raiders in week 5, losing the trench battle 85-123, and they would have won the trench battle were it not for an abysmal punting game (in which they had two punts blocked and they were given -43 Trench Points for their punting unit).
Only in week 13 against Oakland and week 16 against Cincinnati were they really beaten down in the trenches, not a good time of year to change the personality and start rolling over in games.
Over the course of the season, the Chargers play really well in trenches when they win, and still play well in the trenches when they lose. Especially on offense and defense. Special teams was where their weaknesses truly exposed themselves. The Chargers’ special teams are ranked 29th, and their inept special teams play had a knack of negating the winning efforts in the trenches by the offense and defense. If you’re a fan, this couldn’t be more frustrating. They win the trench battles, but lose the game wars.
It’s almost better to have a team that doesn’t dominate as much when it wins – showing the ability to “win the close ones.” These are the teams that “find a way to win.” These are teams to rally behind. Or even more exciting is when a team “gets beat” and still finds a way to win. This is also known as “winning ugly.” It’s great to have a team that blows out the competition, but you also want your team to “find a way to win” when things are tough in the trenches. Teams that do this aren’t frustrating, but inspirational—they get the maximum number of wins based on their ability and effort. The more wins with the fewer trench points reveals the ability to “find a way to win.”
Let’s take a look at the NFL and find these teams.
Using Trench Fantasy stats, we can chart out the different team personalities. Those that can maximize the number of wins based on their ability and effort in the trenches are the ones fans (and coaches) love. Those that “find a way to lose” are treated with contempt. Based on Trench Fantasy points scored when winning and when losing, we can divide teams into four camps:
1. Dominant in wins, lose close ones in the trenches
The Chargers are in this camp. These are teams that have the ability to blow out teams and battle hard when it is close – but have a knack of losing when it’s close. Other non-playoff teams that are in this camp are Cincinnati and Minnesota. Playoff teams that are in this camp are the New York Jets, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. When you make the playoffs, it’s OK to lose a few close ones, because you won (and even dominated) enough times to make it to the top of the standings, and you did it in style. At the same time, these are teams that, when they found themselves in tough trench battles during the regular season, they were beat, causing fans some nervousness. Better hope that these teams simply dominate.
2. Dominant in wins, beat up in losses
This is the Jeckyll/Hyde camp. These are the teams that seem to win easily in the games they win – dominate even. Then in the games they lose they roll over and die. They get beat up bad. “Where was that dominant team we saw a week ago?” fans and sportswriters are likely to ask. Non-playoff teams in this zone are Oakland, the New York Giants, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and, yes, Carolina (who performed well in the trenches in their two victories, but got beat up in their 14 losses). Playoff teams in this camp are Kansas City and Seattle. Chief fans know what I’m talking about. Some weeks they look unbeatable, other weeks they are beat up. Seahawk fans know just how dominated they’ve been in the trenches all year, earning an average of only 23 Trench Fantasy points when losing. But when they won, they showed some dominance, earning 197 points when winning (+18 compared to the average). Jeckyll/Hyde indeed.
3. Win without dominating, hard-fought in losses
These are the teams that always seem to be in close battles, and sometimes they pull off the win, and sometimes they lose. The good thing about these teams is that they always seem to fight hard. The bad thing about these teams is that they never seem to be super-dominant, making for anxiety-filled Sundays. Playoff teams that are in this camp are New Orleans, Baltimore, and Indianapolis. It’s great that they are in the playoffs, but you know that they are going to be in tough battles throughout the playoffs. Don’t expect your team to blow out the other team, but do expect them to find a way to win. The teams in this camp that didn’t make the playoffs are Dallas, Miami, Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit, and Houston. These are teams that could score fairly decent trench fantasy points on an ongoing basis, but still lost too many times. They rarely blew out the other team, nor were they blown out – but found themselves on the wrong end of the scoreboard. These teams, like the Chargers, found ways to lose too many times. Unlike the Chargers, they never showed dominance on both sides of the ball.
4. Win without dominating, dominated in losses
This is the category that exemplifies teams that – unlike the Chargers – find a way to win (when they win). They didn’t necessarily have the best trench effort, but often found their team liking what they see on the scoreboard at the end of the game. These are lovable teams, perhaps even magical – when they win. If they do it a lot, then they are extremely lovable. They “win ugly.” Teams in this camp that made the playoffs are New England, Atlanta, and Chicago. These teams didn’t necessarily dominate when they won, but, given the sheer number of victories they amassed, they have the “winning knack”, even with glaring weakness in the trenches. In New England’s case, their defense gave up a lot of Trench Fantasy points, but it didn’t seem to matter. 14 wins for the Patriots is easier to remember.
Yet people may still be surprised to find the Pats in this category, as they had some signature, dominant wins. But on four occasions they actually lost in the trenches (against Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota, and Green Bay), but still found ways to win the game. And they did this three times in a row in the middle of the season. In Atlanta’s case, their offense is ranked 10th in the trenches on offense, 18th on defense, but 5th on special teams. With the consistent and high-ranked special teams play, they’re like the anti-Chargers. Somehow they were able translate these middling trench numbers into lots of “W’s”. In the case of Chicago, their offense was all-too-frequently unspectacular, ranking 30th, but their defense (5th) and special teams (6th) carried the load. Their weakness on offense didn’t seem to matter, and they had a knack of winning lots of games, which eases any anxiety when it comes to lack of offense. At the same time, when these teams lost, they tended to get beat pretty bad. In New England’s two losses to the Jets and Cleveland, the Pats got beat bad. But this happened so infrequently that it is easy to forget. Funny how making the playoffs makes your forget the teams’ “personality weaknesses.”
The teams in this category that didn’t make the playoffs are Washington, Buffalo, Tennessee, Denver, Arizona, and Tampa Bay. These are the teams that when they got beat – which was frequent – with the exception of Tampa Bay (more on that later) – they got beat bad. But when they won, it was close, and most likely ugly. They never dominated in the trenches, and perhaps even were beat in the trenches, but still pulled off victories. The team that most exemplified “winning ugly” was Washington. They got beat in the trenches a lot, but somehow managed to eke out 6 victories. When they won, it was not through dominant trench play, but perhaps some other magical series of bounces that went their way. On average, the Redskins earned only 107 Trench Fantasy points when winning, compared to the league average of 179 points. (Note that San Diego averaged more points, 115, when losing.) Arizona, too, also had no business earning victories, but found a way to get 5 of them. The Cardinals were the team that was routinely beat up when losing – averaging only 21 Trench Fantasy points when losing (compared to the league average of 78). But when they were able to get remotely competitive, they seemed to pull off the victories – and they did this 5 times.
Charting all of the teams according to personality
With this, we can now chart the teams according to personality, and just how “extreme” their personalities are. The further the teams are to the outside of the chart, the more extreme the personality. That is – they were either more dominant or less dominant in winning. Or more competitive or totally dominated in losing. Similarly, the closer to the center, the less extreme the personality of the team is. On this chart, the larger the font size of the team, the more wins that team had. Teams with lots of wins – and when making the playoffs (in orange) – their personalities become more lovable – or magical — the further to the lower left you are on the chart (New England, Atlanta, and Chicago). If your team didn’t make the playoffs, the further up and to the right on the chart you go, the more frustrating the team’s personality. That makes San Diego, Oakland, Miami, the New York Giants, and Dallas the most frustrating teams, with San Diego by far, the most frustrating.
Here’s the chart: (click for a larger image)
Tampa Bay was team with the least extreme personality – when they won, it was by about the average amount of dominance in the trenches. When they lost, it was by about the average amount of being beat. Fans just wish they were slightly better. Maybe next year. In the case of Dallas, you can see that they played very well in the trenches when losing, but lost a lot. Perhaps a less extreme personality could do them some good? The have the foundation, but need to find more “ways to win” next year. Right next to them is New Orleans who has enough wins to make the playoffs, so the Saints’ tough losses are easy to forget, but it is easy to remember all of their tough wins. Funny what winning does.
And if you’re a San Diego fan, this has got to be the most frustrating season ever. Think about the damage they could have done in the playoffs. They just need to not blow it enough times to make the playoffs, that’s all. Our recommendation: Improve on special teams.
