This year, TrenchFantasy looks at some of the more favorable matchups for offensive lines against opposing defensive lines and secondaries as a way to help successful fantasy owners make smart roster decisions. Trench stats consider the unit’s overall performance, not individual blocking stats.
QBs with favorable trench matchups: P. Manning (IND), Kitna (DAL), Rivers (SD), Ryan (ATL), Schaub (HOU), Hasselbeck (SEA)
Aaron Rodgers may be out this week, so fantasy players who have relied on his production will be scrambling to find a replacement QB. In looking at the trench matchups, there are a few opportunities here.
Jon Kitna has filled in nicely for Tony Romo, and one reason is that he’s being protected by the #3-ranked Cowboy O-Line Pass. Kitna has twice thrown for 3 TD passes in the 8 games he has started this year. The Cowboys have an extremely favorable matchup this week against the 29th-ranked Redskin Defensive Secondary.
We haven’t seen many favorable matchups in the trenches this year for Matt Hasselbeck, but this week is an exception. The 16th-ranked Seahawks’ O-Line Pass faces the 26th-ranked Falcons Defensive Secondary. We are aware that the Falcons are 11-2, but it’s not because of their Defensive Secondary. Opponents complete 65.8% of their passes against the Falcons and 233 yards per game via the pass. Compare that to the 4-9 Arizona Cardinals’ 60.9% Opponents’ Pass Completion and 235 yards per game given up via the pass, and you have reason enough to take a chance on Hasselbeck and the Seahawk O-Line Pass at home.
For those who don’t have to replace Rodgers on their roster, the most favorable matchup this week belongs to Peyton Manning and the Colts’ O-Line Pass. The Colts’ O-Line Pass is ranked #1 by Trench Fantasy and they face the 31st-ranked Jaguar Defensive Secondary. That’s a big mismatch that should equal lots of throws for Manning when the Colts have the ball.
We also like the matchups in the trenches for other big name and highly productive QBs Rivers, Ryan and Schaub.
QBs to sit because of bad trench matchups: Smith (SF), Skelton (ARI), any QB from MIN, Sanchez (NYJ), Roethlisberger (PIT), Clausen (CAR), Fitzpatrick (BUF)
For those looking for a replacement for Aaron Rodgers, avoid these QBs, as they face some tough defenses:
Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh O-Line Pass (ranked 18th) face the 3rd-ranked New York Jets Defensive Secondary. There’s a lot of talk about how the Jets have fallen, but keep in mind that their defense was spectacular against Miami in Week 14, and they still hold the advantage in the trenches when on defense against Pittsburgh.
On the other side of the ball, Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets’ O-Line Pass are trying to get on track, but they aren’t likely t to see much production via the pass this week. The Jets’ O-Line Pass are ranked 30th by Trench Fantasy, and they’re facing the improving and 14th-ranked Pittsburgh Defensive Secondary. Also keep in mind that Pittsburgh’s Defensive Line is ranked #1 by Trench Fantasy, so things are likely to still be tough for the Jets on Offense.
Alex Smith had a great game last week against Seattle (3 TDs, no INTs), so some might be tempted to pick him up. Not so fast: This week the 29th-ranked 49er O-Line Pass faces the #1-ranked San Diego Defensive Secondary. The Seahawks’ D-Sec, in contrast, is ranked 27th. So things are going to be much tougher this week for Smith.
Running Backs with great trench matchups: JAC, OAK, HOU, MIA, ATL, CLE, KC, DAL
Trench Fantasy ranks Jacksonville #1 for O-Line Run. In Week 14 against the Raiders, the Jaguars had two 100-yard rushers. This is a fantasy player’s dream O-Line! Even better, Jaguars face the 30th-ranked Colt Defensive Line. If you take into account that the Jaguars will do everything they can to keep the ball out of Manning’s hands, this could be another great game on the ground for the Jaguars.
Oakland has been off-and-on this year on the ground. This week we anticipate it to be an “On” week. The Raiders’ 9th-ranked O-Line Run faces the 31st-ranked (and demoralized) Bronco D-Line. Do you remember what the Raiders did to the Broncos in Week 7? They ran – in Denver – for 328 yards! This week they’re in Oakland. They have the formula for victory – now let’s see them do it again.
Running Backs with matchups to avoid: CHI, SF, SEA, DEN, PIT, DET
Chicago hasn’t done much on the ground this year, and don’t expect them to start this week. The Bears’ O-Line Run (ranked 29th) face the 8th-ranked Viking Defensive Line.
San Francisco may have blown out the Seahawks last week, but it wasn’t because of a good ground game. They gained only 95 yards via the rush against the Seahawks. And this week the 49er O-Line Run faces an extremely tough matchup against the 3rd-ranked Charger Defensive Line. Philip Rivers may get a lot of press, but the San Diego Defense has been stellar this year, and the 49ers aren’t likely to reverse this trend.
Learn more about the trench matchups! Trench Fantasy offers weekly in-depth matchups spreadsheet and a roster analyzer for free! Examine ALL matchups for the week – including Special Teams – on our weekly Matchups and Mismatches spreadsheet. You can also input your fantasy roster in our Start/Bench analyzer spreadsheet, and get start/bench recommendations based on trench stats for all your fantasy players.
Friend us at http://www.facebook.com/TrenchFantasy and you’ll get updates every week with this in-depth view of the trench matchups and start/bench recommendations based on trench stats. Isn’t it time you looked at the game starting with the trenches?
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